How the world’s middle powers are adapting to a new era of weaponised interdependence

By Gorana Grgić

Luca Faloni

Good morning from Midori House. For more news and views, tune in to Monocle Radio . Here’s what’s coming up in today’s Monocle Minute:

THE OPINION : Middle powers are turning to ‘negotiated pluralism’ DIPLOMACY : Xi Jinping makes rare visit to North Korea DAILY TREAT : Step out in mules from Grenson and NN07 THE LIST : Stories that you might have missed

The Opinion: affairs

How the world’s middle powers are adapting to a new era of weaponised interdependence

The speech that Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, delivered at the World Economic Forum in January continues to reverberate in policy and strategic debates. His diagnosis of a world defined by “rupture” was more than just a striking turn of phrase. It acknowledged that the comfort blanket of the rules-based order is fraying and middle powers can no longer assume geography and goodwill will insulate them from great-power rivalry. Canada has accordingly deepened economic ties with the EU, advanced defence co-operation with countries such as the UK and is expanding trade and security links across the Indo-Pacific region. These are practical steps to build resilience through diversification and co-operation. Financial systems and supply chains, once seen as the conduits of globalisation, are now routinely used for strategic leverage. In such a world, resilience is a governing principle: diversify trade, harden supply chains, invest in domestic industrial capacity and build multiple external partnerships to avoid overdependence. Carney’s language on the need for “coalitions that work” captures the shift well. From Aukus and the Quad to ad-hoc Ukraine support groups, the pattern is clear – smaller, purpose-built formats that deliver where larger institutions struggle.

[picture]

Lending a hand: Mark Carney (on left) with Polish prime minister Donald Tusk

Not all middle powers are playing the same game. Some remain invested in preserving the existing order, especially among US allies and partners. Australia is a case in point. Even as Canberra strengthens its ties with Tokyo, Seoul, Ottawa and Europe, it continues to anchor its strategy in its alliance with Washington. But among the same allies, there are diverging views on how central the US should remain, how much autonomy is realistic and how to manage an ally that can be as transactional and coercive as it is strategically useful. Others are more revisionist. The expansion agenda of the Brics group reflects an effort by some to reshape parts of the global order, in areas from development finance to currency use. But even here the picture is mixed. Countries such as India and the UAE nurture close links with both status-quo-oriented powers and their rivals, keeping active ties with the US and Europe while engaging with China and Russia. The result is a dense, often untidy landscape of overlapping loyalties. There is, however, a logic. A growing body of thinking points towards “negotiated pluralism”. Stability, in this view, rests on a system that looks more like a mosaic, with multiple coalitions doing different jobs. Recent policy moves bear this out and there are reasons for optimism. The coalitions assembled in support of Ukraine show that middle powers can lead efforts to act collectively when the stakes are clear. The EU’s push to strengthen economic security is increasingly paired with outreach to Indo-Pacific partners. Discussions around regulatory alignment hint at the emergence of cross-regional economic architectures. European co-operation in defence is also expanding outward, with new partnerships extending as far as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia. Middle powers are not a substitute for great power consensus, nor should they pretend to be. But in a fractured world, they can still play a stabilising role. Gorana Grgić is Monocle’s security correspondent. For more from Grgić, click here .

The Briefings

DIPLOMACY: CHINA & North Korea

Xi Jinping’s trip to North Korea signals warming relations with Kim Jong-un

It’s a good time to be Kim Jong-un ( writes Jack Simpson ). For the first time in nearly seven years, Chinese president Xi Jinping will touch down in Pyongyang today to reaffirm relations with the North Korean dictator. Emboldened in recent years by deepening ties with Russia that bring much-needed oil and food, North Korea is now less reliant on its traditional alliance with China. But Xi’s visit – which comes off the back of hosting 17 world leaders in Beijing this year alone, including US president Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin – is a statement of China’s intent to support its neighbour.

[picture]

Serving interests: Kim Jong-un, (on left) with Xi Jinping in Beijing

Pyongyang will seek to expand on economic agreements, investments and tourism opportunities from Beijing but it’s also likely to discuss its military capabilities. The visit comes at a critical juncture for the global order. For years, China and Russia were both adamant that North Korea should pare back its nuclear arsenal. No longer. In recent addresses, China has dropped this insistence and Russia waived its concern once Putin and Kim agreed a new mutual defence pact in 2024. As reported in The Monocle Minute on 28 May, South Korea is committed to producing a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. Kim will want to ensure he can match that and China is one of only six nations with such know-how. Behind all the pomp and parades, expect a push for a much stronger and more capable North Korea.

• • • • • DAILY TREAT • • • • •

Slip into a pair of mules from Grenson and NN07

With the rise of mercury comes the need to switch from heavier footwear to lighter, warmer-weather options. It’s hardly practical to constantly be fetching your shoehorn – you require footwear that can be quickly taken on and off, and be paired easily with everything from linen trousers to shorts.

Fortunately, English shoemakers Grenson have collaborated with Danish clothiers NN07 on a pair of mules that have all the hallmarks of a smart, gathered apron moccasin – just without the heel. It’s a classic Grenson silhouette from the 1960s, reimagined in a nappa leather that’s bound to fit just right. Enjoy. grenson.com ; nn07.com

Beyond the headlines

the LIST: FROM monocle.com

Stories you might have missed

Not been on monocle.com recently? Here are three updates worth your while.

Edge Group, the defence conglomerate driving the UAE’s fast-growing arms industry

Get to work with Broadsheet founder Nick Shelton

Chanel’s president of watches and fine jewellery on the timely partnership with the Oxford-Cambridge Boat Race

Monocle Radio: the urbanist

How can the real estate sector help Europe stay ahead of the competition?

Carlota Rebelo reports from the Urban Land Institute’s 2026 Europe Conference in Berlin, where we hear the most interesting voices in the real estate sector assess the challenges facing our cities.

Amid the din of modern news, including us as a preferred Google source helps to push our reporting to the surface when you need it. Tap here to do just that.

Newsletter: Join us

Welcome to our world

Has this been forwarded to you by a friend? Sign up to The Monocle Minute and Monocle Weekend Editions to receive your own bulletin of weekday news and weekend treats.